The Canadian military has quietly explored an extraordinary hypothetical: what it would do if the United States ever sent troops across the northern border. According to a report Tuesday from The Globe and Mail, Canada’s armed forces have modeled a step-by-step response to a potential American incursion, reviewing how the country might react if its most powerful ally suddenly became an adversary.
Senior government officials cited in the report stressed that the exercise is not a formal war plan and that an actual U.S. invasion remains highly unlikely. Even so, the fact that such a scenario is being examined at all underscores how dramatically geopolitical tensions have shifted.
The backdrop to Canada’s preparations is President Donald Trump’s increasingly provocative rhetoric. As Trump intensifies his push to acquire Greenland and continues to openly muse about absorbing Canada into the United States, Ottawa appears determined not to dismiss any possibility outright. Earlier this week, Trump shared a doctored image on Truth Social depicting a United States that included Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela, further fueling unease north of the border.
From a purely military standpoint, the imbalance is stark. Canada fields roughly 70,000 active-duty personnel and spends just over one percent of its GDP on defense. The United States, by contrast, maintains about 1.3 million active-duty troops and possesses unmatched air, naval, and logistical capabilities. Canadian officials reportedly acknowledge that they could not repel a conventional American assault head-on.
Instead, the model described by The Globe and Mail envisions reliance on small militias composed of volunteers and civilians. These units would focus on ambush tactics, harassment operations, and drone strikes, mirroring asymmetric methods used by insurgent forces such as the Taliban against U.S. and Canadian troops in Afghanistan. The comparison is striking, suggesting that Canada’s planners believe survival would depend on making any occupation costly rather than attempting to defeat American forces outright.
As a NATO member, Canada would also look to its allies for support. Retired Major General David Fraser told the outlet that an attack on Canada would provoke a broad international response, potentially bringing European naval and air forces onto Canadian soil. Unlike more distant flashpoints, he argued, Canada’s sovereignty would galvanize global attention.
The irony is that even as these hypothetical plans are reviewed, Canada’s military remains deeply integrated with America’s. NORAD continues joint operations, with U.S. and Canadian aircraft set to arrive in Greenland this week for long-planned defense activities.
That cooperation exists alongside Trump’s repeated suggestions that Canada become the “51st state,” his tariff threats, and his offer to include Canada in the proposed Golden Dome missile defense system—either for a hefty fee or free of charge if it joined the United States.
