Conventional wisdom says government shutdowns are political poison—especially for the party seen as holding the purse strings. But the latest polling data suggests something different is unfolding in real time, and it’s a shift that has caught even the media’s own analysts off guard.
According to CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten, the Republican Party has not only weathered the storm of the current government shutdown — it’s thrived in its wake. Citing a new AP-NORC poll, Enten revealed that Republican approval has actually gone up, both among the base and — more significantly — among independents.
“That [Republican] brand, actually up two points,” Enten noted. “That’s within the margin of error, but clearly it hasn’t dropped.”
Notably, the approval rating for Republicans in Congress is up 5 points overall, and the net approval rating among Republican voters jumped by 12 points, with an 8-point gain among independents. In other words: while Democrats and legacy media tried to frame this shutdown as a political disaster for the GOP, it turns out voters — especially those in the middle — are viewing the standoff through a very different lens.
This is particularly striking given how the shutdown began. On October 1, all but three Senate Democrats voted against the GOP’s continuing resolution (CR) — not because it failed to fund essential services, but because it didn’t include expanded Obamacare tax credits. Democrats chose to force a shutdown rather than accept a clean funding bill without those additions.
House Speaker Mike Johnson made it clear: the discussion on ACA subsidies can happen — after the government is funded. But Democrats wanted the leverage of a shutdown, and now the polling shows that bet may have backfired.
“Republicans with the shutdown are actually rallying their base,” Enten said. “And it’s also something that’s not hurting them with the folks in the middle. If anything, it’s helping them.”
This is the kind of data that reshapes political narratives.
While Democrats have framed the shutdown as a cynical move to strip healthcare from millions, the polling suggests Americans are more attuned to the process and the priorities — and they’re siding with Republicans, particularly when the GOP is seen as holding firm without caving to ideological demands. The fact that independent voters — the most critical electoral bloc in battleground states — are now viewing congressional Republicans more favorably is a red alert for Democrats banking on outrage to carry them through.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s own approval rating has held strong, even edging into positive territory (+1) — a notable development, given how quickly former presidents are usually scapegoated during budget standoffs. And the finger-pointing has, for once, not stuck: less than a majority of Americans blame Trump for the shutdown at all.
As for the political theater behind the scenes, Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance wasted no time calling out Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer for what they say is his capitulation to the far-left. Their theory? Schumer is more afraid of a primary challenge from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez than he is of losing face during the shutdown. And while AOC has not formally announced a challenge, her visible agitation at questions from CNN’s Kaitlan Collins—alongside Bernie Sanders’ own defensiveness—has only fueled the speculation.
