Once considered politically untouchable in the Empire State, Governor Kathy Hochul is now facing a stark reality: New York is in play. A new GOP-commissioned poll has thrown cold water on Democratic confidence, revealing that a hypothetical matchup between Hochul and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) shows the governor leading by just six points—a margin that would have been unthinkable even two years ago.
And that six-point gap? It’s not a sign of strength. It’s a flashing warning sign.
In a state where Donald Trump’s popularity is surging, Hochul’s approval is in freefall. The poll shows just 36% of New Yorkers approve of her job performance, while a bruising 55% disapprove. Among all respondents, 61% say they want someone new at the helm.
This is not a margin of error. This is a mandate—for change.
Stefanik, the 40-year-old MAGA torchbearer who has represented New York’s 21st Congressional District since 2014, has cemented herself as a top-tier contender. Her net favorability among Republicans is a stunning +47, while rivals like Rep. Mike Lawler and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman are virtually unknown among voters.
With the full-throated endorsement of President Trump, who recently declared on Truth Social that “Elise Stefanik is GREAT!!!” and suggested he’d back a gubernatorial bid, the momentum is unmistakable.
She nearly left Congress earlier this year to accept Trump’s nomination as U.N. Ambassador, a move that was blocked only because Speaker Mike Johnson couldn’t afford to lose her vote. That aborted exit only heightened speculation: What will Stefanik do next?
The answer may be written in Hochul’s poll numbers.
A second, broader poll of 600 likely voters paints an even more precarious picture: Hochul leads Stefanik 46% to 40%. That’s within striking distance—and more importantly, within flipping distance, especially once ad dollars, ground operations, and presidential coattails are factored in.
And the kicker? Even unknown Republicans like Lawler and Blakeman are trailing Hochul by just seven or eight points. These are not seasoned statewide names—yet they’re already competitive. That alone underscores just how vulnerable Hochul truly is.
Democrats in New York are now confronting a painful truth: they are being dragged down by failed policies, rising crime, skyrocketing costs of living, and the ongoing flood of illegal immigration that even liberal mayors have called “unsustainable.” The progressive brand is faltering—and Stefanik’s brand of unapologetic, America-first conservatism is gaining ground.
