Well, it looks like things are heating up in the Rust Belt, and not exactly in Kamala Harris’s favor. According to the latest Quinnipiac University surveys, Donald Trump is making some serious headway in those key swing states that could determine the 2024 election. And, for all the hype about Harris’s appeal, the numbers are telling a different story.
In Michigan, Trump has actually taken the lead—50% to Harris’s 47%. It’s a slim margin but enough to send a chill down the spine of any Democrat banking on a blue wall in the Midwest. Remember when Harris had a comfortable lead here back in September? Yeah, that’s fading fast.
The survey shows her barely clinging to a 3-point advantage in Pennsylvania, 49% to 46%, while Trump is making it clear he’s not giving up an inch in Wisconsin, trailing by just 2 points (48% to 46%). And yes, all of these results fall within the margins of error, which means that as Election Day approaches, these states could flip at any moment.
🚨SHOCK POLLS BY QUINNIPIAC🚨
Michigan now: 🔴 Trump +3
Last month: 🔵 Harris +5Wisconsin now: 🔴 Trump +2
Last month: 🔵 Harris +1Pennsylvania: 🔵 Harris +2
Last month: 🔵 Harris +6Quinnipiac always *overestimates* the Democratic presidential candidate.
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 9, 2024
And speaking of flipping, the Michigan Senate race is now tied. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who once had a solid 5-point lead over former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, is now in a dead heat. Clearly, Democratic enthusiasm is fading—or maybe it’s just that voters are taking a second look at what the GOP is offering. Meanwhile, the Democrats are holding their ground in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania’s Senate races, but even there, the margins aren’t what they used to be.
#NEW 2024 BATTLEGROUND MAP based on recent Quinnipiac polls
🔴 Trump: 276 🏆
🔵 Harris: 245
🟡 Not polled: 17 pic.twitter.com/BEqNAsi99L— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 9, 2024
Trump isn’t wasting time, either. He’s back in Pennsylvania for a couple of campaign events, including a rally in Reading and an event in Scranton—Biden’s old stomping grounds. And he’s sticking to the issues that got him here: hammering away on the economy and immigration, hot-button topics that continue to resonate with many voters in these states. He even made sure to remind the crowd in Reading of his plans to “liberate Pennsylvania” from what he describes as the “mass migrant invasion.” That’s the kind of talk that fires up his base and puts pressure on Democrats to defend their own record.
Meanwhile, Harris was off the campaign trail, taking a briefing on Hurricane Milton. Instead, her ally, former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney, was in Pennsylvania making the case against Trump, calling him out for his actions on January 6th and urging voters not to forget that day. Cheney’s remarks may resonate with some voters, but let’s be honest—it’s not clear whether that message will move the needle in places where economic concerns and immigration are dominating the conversation.
With less than a month until Election Day, it’s crunch time. Both sides are emphasizing the importance of getting out the vote, and the race in these battlegrounds is tighter than a drum. Democrats may have expected smooth sailing, but right now, it’s looking like a bumpy ride through the Rust Belt. And if Harris and the rest of her party don’t step up their game, they might just find themselves watching those states slip through their fingers once again.