Ilhan Omar’s re-election bid may be facing its most serious threat yet — and it’s not coming from Republicans. Pro-Israel groups, particularly the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), appear to be laying the groundwork for a high-dollar primary challenge in Minnesota’s deep-blue 5th District, where Congresswoman Omar has comfortably held office since 2019. But recent events and brewing dissatisfaction — especially over her stance on Israel — suggest the ground may be shifting beneath her feet.
A recent telephone survey circulating among Democratic primary voters in Omar’s district has triggered alarms within the progressive camp. The poll, which includes test messaging critical of Omar’s record and gauges support for potential challenger Ryan Winkler, bears all the hallmarks of an early AIPAC reconnaissance mission. While no group has taken credit, veteran operatives and progressive organizations say the fingerprints are unmistakable.
The survey reportedly labels Omar as “one of the most anti-Israel members of Congress,” referencing her refusal to condemn the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and her vote against sending arms to the Jewish state. Respondents were then asked how these statements affected their view of her candidacy.
This approach — trial polling, message testing, and quiet coordination with potential candidates — mirrors AIPAC’s successful ousting of Squad member Jamaal Bowman in New York, where millions were poured into the race to back George Latimer, a moderate Democrat with strong pro-Israel credentials.
At the center of the speculation is Ryan Winkler, a former Minnesota House Majority Leader known for his progressive record on issues like the minimum wage and prison reform. While not yet an official candidate, his name’s inclusion in the poll suggests he’s being vetted as a viable challenger, possibly with the encouragement or support of major donors.
The trial balloon serves a dual purpose: 1) measure the district’s appetite for a change, and 2) generate data to pitch donors on a serious primary effort. The stakes are high — AIPAC spent more than $51 million in 2024 alone, and if Omar is seen as vulnerable, that war chest could be mobilized rapidly.
Ilhan Omar has long been a lightning rod in American politics, particularly on matters related to Israel and U.S. foreign policy. Her criticism of Israel’s military actions and U.S. aid has drawn rebuke not only from conservatives, but also from centrist Democrats and Jewish groups.
Following the October 7 Hamas attacks, Omar’s reluctance to issue a clear condemnation — combined with her vote against military assistance to Israel — may have pushed some in the party establishment past their breaking point. Her progressive supporters defend her as a consistent anti-war voice, but many Democrats fear that her rhetoric increasingly alienates mainstream voters and donors.
Far-left organizations like Justice Democrats are already crying foul, accusing AIPAC of orchestrating a quiet coup within Democratic primaries. Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for the group, claims this is “absolutely their playbook,” referring to how AIPAC scouts candidates and then leverages polling data to secure donor backing.
But even if that’s true, it’s not illegal — and it’s effective. In the Bowman race, AIPAC’s involvement flipped the seat without needing to overplay the Israel issue. Instead, they focused on his erratic behavior and unprofessionalism, while still making the Israel stance a silent undercurrent. Expect the same strategy if Winkler runs against Omar.
Ordinarily, no. Minnesota’s 5th is one of the safest Democratic seats in the country. But as Bowman’s loss proved, primaries are now the new battleground for internal party power struggles. With enough money and the right candidate, even incumbents with national name recognition can fall.
The fact that 43% of Democrats now say they’re open to alternative candidates who support Israel shows that Omar’s stance is not as politically bulletproof as it once was.
