Trump gets some good news

With just over three weeks left until Election Day, it looks like things are getting a lot more interesting in the 2024 presidential race. According to a trio of new national surveys, former President Donald Trump seems to be chipping away at the lead Vice President Kamala Harris had managed to secure after replacing President Biden as the Democrats’ candidate. Not long ago, Harris seemed to have all the momentum, but it appears Trump is now closing in—and fast.

Let’s be real: this isn’t exactly shocking. If there’s one thing Trump has proven, it’s that he thrives on comebacks. And judging by these surveys, that’s exactly what we’re seeing here. A month ago, Harris was leading Trump by six points in the ABC News/Ipsos survey, but now it’s a tight 50%-48%. Likewise, NBC News shows the two deadlocked at 48%, which is a sharp shift from last month’s five-point advantage for Harris. CBS News’ latest findings aren’t much different—Harris is clinging to a three-point edge, down from four points last month.

But let’s not forget how we got here. After President Biden’s less-than-stellar debate performance against Trump in late June, things were looking grim for the incumbent administration. Biden was on a downward spiral, and Trump took the opportunity to carve out a small lead. Then Biden bowed out, and Harris jumped in, sparking a wave of enthusiasm among Democrats and helping her overtake Trump in the early surveys. For a while, it looked like the Democratic Party might actually pull it off, riding Harris’ wave of excitement into the fall.

But here’s the thing—enthusiasm only gets you so far. Now, as summer has turned to fall, it seems like Harris’ favorability is fading. Republicans, who may have been hesitant or lukewarm about Trump a few months ago, are returning to the fold. And that massive gender gap we’re all so familiar with is growing even wider, signaling that Harris may have a real problem on her hands.

Veteran GOP pollster Neil Newhouse didn’t mince words, saying Harris’ campaign is “on the verge of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.” Ouch. He’s not wrong, though. The perception that Harris represents a “second Biden administration” is doing her no favors, especially when Biden’s own popularity has been in freefall. The reality is that Harris hasn’t been able to shake that baggage, and voters aren’t exactly lining up for more of the same.

Of course, national surveys give us a general picture of the race, but it’s all about those key battleground states when it comes to the Electoral College. And in those critical states—the ones that determined the 2020 election and will do so again in 2024—it’s looking like a margin-of-error race, with no clear leader.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, is cautiously waiting for more data before calling this momentum for Trump. He wisely pointed out that what we’re seeing could either be real momentum or just the usual tightening of the race as Election Day approaches.

Joe Scarborough went digging for a survey that put Kamala in a good light, finally found one, posted it, and then, of course, turned off the comments to avoid the inevitable backlash. Classic move.

One thing’s for sure: the next few weeks will be crucial. If Harris can’t reignite the enthusiasm that got her ahead in the first place, and if Trump continues to capitalize on the GOP’s consolidation around him, we could be looking at yet another upset in the making. Buckle up, because this ride is far from over.

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