California Governor Gavin Newsom is openly acknowledging that Democrats are preparing contingency plans to avoid what many in the party fear would be a political disaster: getting completely shut out of California’s gubernatorial general election under the state’s unusual “top-two” primary system.
During a Thursday press conference focused on California’s budget, Newsom hinted that Democratic operatives are already discussing what he described as a potential “break the glass scenario” if Republican candidates gain too much momentum heading into the June primary.
Under California’s election rules, all candidates compete on the same primary ballot regardless of party, and the top two finishers advance to the general election. That means if Democrats fracture their vote badly enough in a crowded field, two Republicans could theoretically advance while every Democrat is eliminated before November.
A reporter directly asked Newsom whether Democrats might hold him accountable if he remains publicly neutral while such a scenario unfolds.
“My focus has been making sure that doesn’t happen,” Newsom responded.
The governor suggested he has already taken quiet steps behind the scenes to shape the race and prevent Democrats from being locked out entirely.
“I’ve exercised not just a focus, but I’ve exercised through some action efforts to encourage that doesn’t happen,” Newsom said.
Then came the more revealing remark.
“I don’t anticipate this need to be the case,” Newsom continued, “but there is a break-the-glass scenario.”
“There’s many people that have a deep understanding of what it would be like if Democrats were locked out, and we’re going to do everything to make sure that doesn’t happen.”
The comments immediately fueled speculation that California Democrats may intervene more aggressively in the race if polling continues tightening.
Recent survey data helps explain the anxiety.
An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey conducted earlier this month showed a surprisingly competitive field. Former Biden administration Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra currently leads with 19% support, but Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer are both sitting at 17%.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, another Republican, polls at 11%, while former Democratic Congresswoman Katie Porter trails closely behind at 10%.
That crowded Democratic field has created fears that center-left voters could splinter across multiple candidates while Republicans consolidate around one or two stronger contenders.
If that happened, California — one of the bluest states in the country — could theoretically end up with two Republicans advancing to the general election, shutting Democrats out entirely despite their statewide voter registration advantage.
The possibility may sound far-fetched, but California’s “jungle primary” system has produced similar surprises before. In several congressional races over the years, one party has been completely excluded from the general election because too many candidates divided the vote.
